Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?

• Published in: Remote sensing (Basel, Switzerland) Vol. 14; no. 18; p. 4440
• Main Authors: Mazzarella, Vincenzo, Milelli, Massimo, Lagasio, Martina, Federico, Stefano, Torcasio, Rosa Claudia, Biondi, Riccardo, Realini, Eugenio, Llasat, Maria Carmen, Rigo, Tomeu, Esbrí, Laura, Kerschbaum, Markus, Temme, Marco-Michael, Gluchshenko, Olga, Parodi, Antonio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.09.2022
• Subjects: Air traffic management; Air transportation; Aircraft; Aircraft accidents & safety; Aircraft landing; Airports; Aviation; Climate change; Convection; data assimilation; Data collection; Extreme weather; Flight safety; Landing behavior; Lightning; Management systems; Mathematical models; Meteorological satellites; Nowcasting; Numerical prediction; Numerical weather forecasting; numerical weather prediction; Passenger safety; Qualitative analysis; Remote sensing; Satellite observation; severe weather events; Storms; Temporal resolution; Traffic management; Weather forecasting; WRF; Po Valley; Europe
• ISSN: 2072-4292; 2072-4292
• DOI: 10.3390/rs14184440

The growth of air transport demand expected over the next decades, along with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls and severe storms due to climate change, will pose a tough challenge for air traffic management systems, with implications for flight safety, delays and passengers. In this context, the Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM (SINOPTICA) project has a dual aim, first to investigate if very short-range high-resolution weather forecast, including data assimilation, can improve the predictive capability of these events, and then to understand if such forecasts can be suitable for air traffic management purposes. The intense squall line that affected Malpensa, the major airport by passenger traffic in northern Italy, on 11 May 2019 is selected as a benchmark. Several numerical experiments are performed with a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using two assimilation techniques, 3D-Var in WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system and a nudging scheme for lightning, in order to improve the forecast accuracy and to evaluate the impact of assimilated different datasets. To evaluate the numerical simulations performance, three different verification approaches, object-based, fuzzy and qualitative, are used. The results suggest that the assimilation of lightning data plays a key role in triggering the convective cells, improving both location and timing. Moreover, the numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based nowcasting system is able to produce reliable forecasts at high spatial and temporal resolution. The timing was found to be suitable for helping Air Traffic Management (ATM) operators to compute alternative landing trajectories.