Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant by Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton Model

The contribution of renewable energies to the reduction of the impact of fossil fuels sources and especially energy supply in remote areas has occupied a role more and more important during last decades. The estimation of renewable power plants performances by means of deterministic models is usuall...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEnergies (Basel) Vol. 11; no. 2; p. 306
Main Authors Chiacchio, Ferdinando, Famoso, Fabio, D’Urso, Diego, Brusca, Sebastian, Aizpurua, Jose, Cedola, Luca
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.02.2018
Subjects
aging
Economic forecasting
Energy
Energy resources
Energy sources
Feasibility studies
Fossil fuels
Monte Carlo simulation
photovoltaic power plant
Photovoltaics
Plant reliability
Power plants
Randomness
Reliability analysis
renewable energy
stochastic hybrid automaton
Stochasticity
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Summary:The contribution of renewable energies to the reduction of the impact of fossil fuels sources and especially energy supply in remote areas has occupied a role more and more important during last decades. The estimation of renewable power plants performances by means of deterministic models is usually limited by the innate variability of the energy resources. The accuracy of energy production forecasting results may be inadequate. An accurate feasibility analysis requires taking into account the randomness of the primary resource operations and the effect of component failures in the energy production process. This paper treats a novel approach to the estimation of energy production in a real photovoltaic power plant by means of dynamic reliability analysis based on Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton (SHyFTA). The comparison between real data, deterministic model and SHyFTA model confirm how the latter better estimate energy production than deterministic model.
ISSN:1996-1073
1996-1073
DOI:10.3390/en11020306