Measuring Democratic Backsliding

Despite the general narrative that the world is in a period of democratic decline, there have been surprisingly few empirical studies that assess whether this is systematically true. Most existing studies of global backsliding are based largely if not entirely on subjective indicators that rely on e...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPS, political science & politics Vol. 57; no. 2; pp. 149 - 161
Main Authors Little, Andrew T., Meng, Anne
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.04.2024
Subjects
Annual Reports
Autocracy
Comment and Controversy
Comment and Controversy: Special Issue on Democratic Backsliding
Democracy
Elections
Evidence
Exhibits
Freedom
Freedom of the press
Governance
Leaders
Political leadership
Term limitations
Trends
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Summary:Despite the general narrative that the world is in a period of democratic decline, there have been surprisingly few empirical studies that assess whether this is systematically true. Most existing studies of global backsliding are based largely if not entirely on subjective indicators that rely on expert coder judgment. Our study surveys objective indicators of democracy (e.g., incumbent performance in elections) and finds little evidence of global democratic decline during the past decade. To explain the discrepancy in trends between expert-coded and objective indicators, we consider the role of coder bias and leaders strategically using more subtle undemocratic action. Although we cannot rule out the possibility that the world is becoming less democratic exclusively in ways that require subjective judgment to detect, this claim is not justified by existing evidence.
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ISSN:1049-0965
1537-5935
DOI:10.1017/S104909652300063X