A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

• Published in: Mathematical problems in engineering Vol. 2017; no. 2017; pp. 1 - 16
• Main Authors: Zheng, Xia-zhong, Zhou, Jian-Lan, Wang, Fei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cairo, Egypt Hindawi Publishing Corporation 01.01.2017; Hindawi; Hindawi Limited
• Subjects: Accidents; Construction accidents & safety; Correlation analysis; Decision analysis; Decision making; Decision theory; Failure analysis; Fuzzy sets; Human factors; Hydroelectric power; Laboratories; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical problems; Mining accidents & safety; Risk assessment; Science; Statistical methods; China
• ISSN: 1024-123X; 1563-5147
• DOI: 10.1155/2017/7908737

Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP). In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR) assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.