Application of Machine Learning for Shale Oil and Gas “Sweet Spots” Prediction

• Published in: Energies (Basel) Vol. 17; no. 9; p. 2191
• Main Authors: Wang, Hongjun, Guo, Zekun, Kong, Xiangwen, Zhang, Xinshun, Wang, Ping, Shan, Yunpeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.05.2024
• Subjects: Algorithms; Carbon; Cluster analysis; Decision trees; Engineering; Geology; Machine learning; main controlling factor analysis; Natural gas; Neural networks; Oil shale; Permeability; Porosity; random forest; recoverable reserves; Reserves; Support vector machines; sweet spot prediction; Technological planning; China; Canada; Western Canada
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en17092191

With the continuous improvement of shale oil and gas recovery technologies and achievements, a large amount of geological information and data have been accumulated for the description of shale reservoirs, and it has become possible to use machine learning methods for “sweet spots” prediction in shale oil and gas areas. Taking the Duvernay shale oil and gas field in Canada as an example, this paper attempts to build recoverable shale oil and gas reserve prediction models using machine learning methods and geological and development big data, to predict the distribution of recoverable shale oil and gas reserves and provide a basis for well location deployment and engineering modifications. The research results of the machine learning model in this study are as follows: ① Three machine learning methods were applied to build a prediction model and random forest showed the best performance. The R2 values of the built recoverable shale oil and gas reserves prediction models are 0.7894 and 0.8210, respectively, with an accuracy that meets the requirements of production applications; ② The geological main controlling factors for recoverable shale oil and gas reserves in this area are organic matter maturity and total organic carbon (TOC), followed by porosity and effective thickness; the main controlling factor for engineering modifications is the total proppant volume, followed by total stages and horizontal lateral length; ③ The abundance of recoverable shale oil and gas reserves in the central part of the study area is predicted to be relatively high, which makes it a favorable area for future well location deployment.