Robustness-Optimality Tradeoff for Watershed Load Reduction Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Practical and optimal reduction of watershed loads under deep uncertainty requires sufficient search alternatives and direct evaluation of robustness. These requirements contribute to the understanding of the tradeoff between cost and robustness; while they are not well addressed in previous studies...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inWater resources management Vol. 31; no. 11; pp. 3627 - 3640
Main Authors Su, Han, Dong, Feifei, Liu, Yong, Zou, Rui, Guo, Huaicheng
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.09.2017
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Atmospheric Sciences
Civil Engineering
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environment
Evaluation
Evolutionary algorithms
Genetic algorithms
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Hydrology/Water Resources
Laboratories
Lakes
Load
Loads (forces)
Mathematical models
Methods
Objective function
Optimization
Preconditioning
Robustness
Searching
Solutions
Tradeoffs
Uncertainty
Water quality
Watersheds
China
Deep uncertainty
Robustness index
Load reduction
Tradeoff
Optimality
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Summary:Practical and optimal reduction of watershed loads under deep uncertainty requires sufficient search alternatives and direct evaluation of robustness. These requirements contribute to the understanding of the tradeoff between cost and robustness; while they are not well addressed in previous studies. This study thereby (a) uses preconditioning technique in Evolutionary Algorithm to reduce unnecessary search space, which enables a sufficient search; and (b) derives Robustness Index (RI) as a second-tier optimization objective function to achieve refined solutions (solved by GA) that address both robustness and optimality. Uncertainty-based Refined Risk Explicit Linear Interval Programming is used to generate alternatives (solved by Controlled elitist NSGA-II). The robustness calculation error is also quantified. Proposed approach is applied to Lake Dianchi, China. Results demonstrate obvious improvement in robustness after conducting sufficient search and negative robustness-optimality trade-offs, and provides a detailed characteristic of robustness that can serve as references for decision-making.
ISSN:0920-4741
1573-1650
DOI:10.1007/s11269-017-1689-3