An agent-monitored framework for the output-oriented design of experiments in exploratory modelling

• Published in: Simulation modelling practice and theory Vol. 89; pp. 48 - 63
• Main Authors: Moallemi, Enayat A., Elsawah, Sondoss, Ryan, Michael J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.12.2018
• Subjects: Decision support; Design of experiments; Exploratory modelling; Scenario; Simulation; Uncertainty; Exploratory modelling; Uncertainty; Simulation; Design of experiments; Scenario; Decision support
• ISSN: 1569-190X; 1878-1462
• DOI: 10.1016/j.simpat.2018.09.008

•Exploratory modelling results are sensitive to the way that experiments are designed.•Feedback from output space can inform the design of experiments.•An informed design of experiments results in higher confidence in final results.•We present an agent-monitored framework for informing design of experiments. Exploratory modelling is an approach for modelling under uncertainty based on the generation and analysis of computational experiments. The results of exploratory modelling are sensitive to the way that experiments are designed, such as the way that the uncertainty space is delineated. This article introduces an agent-monitored framework—i.e. a design metaphor of the interactions among modellers and stakeholders and the simulation process—for controlling the design of experiments based on monitoring model behaviour in the output space. To demonstrate the benefits of the suggested framework in the exploratory modelling process, the article shows how the use of the framework with an output-oriented approach informs the delineation of an appropriate uncertainty space with an illustrative example in the decision-making context. The article concludes that the design of experiments based on feedback from the output space can be a useful approach: to control simulations in exploratory modelling; to build more confidence in final results; and to inform the design of other aspects of experiments, such as selecting policy levers and sampling method.