The value of pre-trip information on departure time and route choice in the morning commute under stochastic traffic conditions

• Published in: Transportation research. Part B: methodological Vol. 152; pp. 205 - 226
• Main Authors: Han, Xiao, Yu, Yun, Gao, Zi-You, Zhang, H. Michael
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2021; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Advanced traveler information system; Commuting; Congestion; Costs; Departure time choice; Flow; Route choice; Route selection; Stochastic bottleneck capacity; Stochasticity; Traffic; Traffic capacity; Traffic congestion; Transportation systems; Travel; Travel time; Advanced traveler information system; Departure time choice; Congestion; Route choice; Stochastic bottleneck capacity
• ISSN: 0191-2615; 1879-2367
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2021.08.006

Uncertainty in transportation systems can incur additional travel costs, but this adverse effect can be mitigated by providing travel information (Lindsey et al., 2014). It is not clear, however, if providing information always reduces system travel costs, particularly when the information provided is not one hundred percent accurate. This paper studies the welfare effects resulting from providing pre-trip information to morning commuters in a two-route network with bottlenecks, where the bottleneck capacity and free-flow travel time on each route are stochastic. We derive the expected travel costs at user equilibrium (UE) under stochastic conditions without and with pre-trip information first on one route, and later on two routes. Under this model, we examine how accurate and inaccurate information affect commuting costs. We find that full and accurate information is welfare-improving under stochastic bottleneck capacity and deterministic free-flow travel time. However, when bottleneck capacity and free-flow travel time are both stochastic, full and accurate information can be welfare-reducing for the two-route scenario. We show that the degree of correlation between routes in traffic conditions, the frequency and severity of bottleneck capacity drops, and the relationship between free-flow travel time and bottleneck capacity significantly affect the welfare effects of pre-trip information. Furthermore, when bottleneck capacity experiences severe drops, full information is more likely to be welfare-improving, even if the provided information is not completely accurate. These theoretical results are supplemented by numerical examples that show the welfare effects of providing pre-trip information to morning commuters. •The morning commute problem with random-capacity bottlenecks is studied.•We propose a novel method to derive the expected travel cost at user equilibrium.•We analyze the value of accurate/inaccurate information on departure time and route choice.•Key factors affecting the benefits of information are investigated.