Responses of the Distribution Pattern of the Suitable Habitat of Juniperus tibetica Komarov to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Predicting the suitable habitat of plants under climate change has become a trending research topic in recent years. Juniperus tibetica Komarov (Cupressales: Cupressaceae) is a unique and vulnerable species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere. The...

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Published inForests Vol. 14; no. 2; p. 434
Main Authors Zhang, Huayong, Zhao, Bingjian, Huang, Tousheng, Chen, Hao, Yue, Junjie, Tian, Yonglan
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.02.2023
Subjects
Climate change
Climate models
distribution pattern
Distribution patterns
Distribution records
Environmental factors
Generalized linear models
Habitats
Juniperus tibetica
MaxEnt prediction
Northern Hemisphere
Precipitation
Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Spatial analysis
suitable habitat
Threatened species
Timberline
Vegetation
vulnerable species
China
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Summary:Predicting the suitable habitat of plants under climate change has become a trending research topic in recent years. Juniperus tibetica Komarov (Cupressales: Cupressaceae) is a unique and vulnerable species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere. The prediction of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will be beneficial for understanding the ecosystem of the QTP. In the present study, variations in the distribution pattern of the suitable habitats (DPSH) of J. tibetica on the QTP were investigated by MaxEnt and GIS spatial analysis based on 288 distribution records and 8 environmental factors. The environmentally abnormal areas and environmental factors determining the DPSH along with climate change were analyzed, and the most suitable climate models were evaluated. The results show that the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will migrate to higher-elevation and -latitude areas in the future. Precipitation was the most important factor affecting current suitable habitats and limiting future ones, followed by temperature. By comparing the integrality of suitable habitat under different climate models, it was suggested that the HadGEM2-ES (RCP2.6) and BCC-CSM1.1 (RCP8.5) climate models were the best for predicting the DPSH of J. tibetica. This study revealed the response of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica relative to climate change at a large scale and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific management and conservation of J. tibetica resources on the QTP.
ISSN:1999-4907
1999-4907
DOI:10.3390/f14020434