Are you sure you're really telling the truth?

The core constructs of psychological assessment, reliability and validity, are shown to be incomplete and lacking whenever base rates for the conditions under evaluation skew markedly from 50/50. Under such circumstances, base rate information can exert a greater influence on diagnostic accuracy tha...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inNeuroRehabilitation (Reading, Mass.) Vol. 16; no. 4; pp. 215 - 219
Main Author Gouvier, Wm. Drew
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London, England SAGE Publications 01.01.2001
Subjects
Humans
Mental Disorders - diagnosis
Neuropsychology - standards
Truth Disclosure
effectiveness
diagnostic accuracy
base rates
validity
error types
reliability
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Summary:The core constructs of psychological assessment, reliability and validity, are shown to be incomplete and lacking whenever base rates for the conditions under evaluation skew markedly from 50/50. Under such circumstances, base rate information can exert a greater influence on diagnostic accuracy that is typically recognized among practitioners. The influence of base rates is so profound, that conclusions based on reliable and valid test data are often, more probably than not, wrong! This paper outlines our historical understanding of the “base rate fallacy”, and offers explanations for its persistence in the practice of diagnostic psychology. Recommendations for self-monitoring and policing of our profession are offered, in order that neuropsychology might improve its diagnostic accuracy at a rate more comparable to the progress made in similar fields in medicine.
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ISSN:1053-8135
1878-6448
DOI:10.3233/NRE-2001-16404