An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 37; no. 10; pp. 1936 - 1957
• Main Authors: Wu, Bing, Yan, Xinping, Wang, Yang, Soares, C. Guedes
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.10.2017
• Subjects: Accidents; Capsizing; Cognitive ability; CREAM; Error analysis; Evidential reasoning; Human error; human reliability analysis; maritime accident process; Reliability; Reliability analysis; Reliability engineering; Risk assessment; safety engineering; Ship accidents & safety; Ships; Uncertainty; human reliability analysis; safety engineering; CREAM; evidential reasoning; maritime accident process
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12757

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario‐ and barrier‐based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning‐based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.