Indiscriminate, Irrelevant, and Sometimes Wrong: Causal Misconceptions about Climate Change

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 41; no. 1; pp. 157 - 178
• Main Authors: Fleming, Whitney, Hayes, Adam L., Crosman, Katherine M., Bostrom, Ann
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.01.2021
• Subjects: Atmospheric ozone; Beliefs; Believing; Causality; Change agents; Climate Change; Climate policy; Climate variability; Depletion; Environmental changes; Environmental degradation; Environmental impact; Environmental policy; Environmental risk; Humans; Ideology; Interviews; Knowledge; mental models; Misconceptions; Mitigation; Ozone depletion; Policies; Policy; Policy making; Political factors; Political ideologies; Politics; Polls & surveys; Pollution; Probability; Regression analysis; Risk assessment; risk perceptions; Risk reduction; Statistical analysis; Surveys and Questionnaires; United States; United States; Climate change; risk perceptions; mental models
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.13587

Prior research demonstrates widespread persistence of beliefs about climate change causes and risks that are arguably misconceptions. They include believing pollution causes climate change, believing ozone depletion causes climate change, the combination of these two “green beliefs,” referred to as environmental problems, and believing natural climate variation significantly contributes to current climate trends. Each of these causal beliefs has the potential to weaken or divert support away from effective climate change risk mitigation policies. To assess this potential, we explore the nature and prevalence of these beliefs in the United States with a national sample of interviews (N = 77) and two national surveys (N = 1,013, N = 1,820), and apply regression and mediation analyses to explore whether they explain any of the variation in individuals’ concern or support for policy to mitigate climate change. Adherence to these beliefs—which reflect a variety of misconceptions illustrated in the interviews—differs by political ideology but is common, with over a third of interviewees mentioning one or more. Controlling for general knowledge, political ideology, and other factors, misconceptions about environmental problems are still associated directly with support for climate change policies. On average adherence to the belief that environmental problems cause climate change is associated with a 25% higher probability of policy support. In contrast, believing natural climate variability is a major recent cause of climate change is associated with a 7% lower probability of supporting climate policy, even after controlling for political ideology and other knowledge about climate change.