Universality of accelerating change

• Published in: Physica A Vol. 494; pp. 430 - 445
• Main Authors: Eliazar, Iddo, Shlesinger, Michael F.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 15.03.2018
• Subjects: Exponential trends; Gompertz law; Invariance; Poisson processes; Universality; Zipf law; Gompertz law; Zipf law; Invariance; Universality; Exponential trends; Poisson processes
• ISSN: 0378-4371; 1873-2119
• DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.021

On large time scales the progress of human technology follows an exponential growth trend that is termed accelerating change. The exponential growth trend is commonly considered to be the amalgamated effect of consecutive technology revolutions – where the progress carried in by each technology revolution follows an S-curve, and where the aging of each technology revolution drives humanity to push for the next technology revolution. Thus, as a collective, mankind is the ‘intelligent designer’ of accelerating change. In this paper we establish that the exponential growth trend – and only this trend – emerges universally, on large time scales, from systems that combine together two elements: randomness and amalgamation. Hence, the universal generation of accelerating change can be attained by systems with no ‘intelligent designer’. •A general growth model based on randomness and amalgamation is introduced.•Analysis establishes that the model’s universal growth pattern is exponential.•Hence ‘accelerating change’ can be universally generated with no ‘intelligent design’.