Workplace absenteeism due to COVID-19 and influenza across Canada: A mathematical model

• Published in: Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 572; p. 111559
• Main Authors: Avusuglo, W.S., Mosleh, Rahele, Ramaj, Tedi, Li, Ao, Sharbayta, Sileshi Sintayehu, Fall, Abdoul Aziz, Ghimire, Srijana, Shi, Fenglin, Lee, Jason K.H., Thommes, Edward, Shin, Thomas, Wu, Jianhong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 07.09.2023
• Subjects: Absenteeism; Co-circulation; Testing and vaccination; Testing and vaccination; Co-circulation; Absenteeism
• ISSN: 0022-5193; 1095-8541
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111559

The continual distress of COVID-19 cannot be overemphasized. The pandemic economic and social costs are alarming, with recent attributed economic loss amounting to billions of dollars globally. This economic loss is partly driven by workplace absenteeism due to the disease. Influenza is believed to be a culprit in reinforcing this phenomenon as it may exist in the population concurrently with COVID-19 during the influenza season. Furthermore, their joint infection may increase workplace absenteeism leading to additional economic loss. The objective of this project will aim to quantify the collective impact of COVID-19 and influenza on workplace absenteeism via a mathematical compartmental disease model incorporating population screening and vaccination. Our results indicate that appropriate PCR testing and vaccination of both COVID-19 and seasonal influenza may significantly alleviate workplace absenteeism. However, with COVID-19 PCR testing, there may be a critical threshold where additional tests may result in diminishing returns. Regardless, we recommend on-going PCR testing as a public health intervention accompanying concurrent COVID-19 and influenza vaccination with the added caveat that sensitivity analyses will be necessary to determine the optimal thresholds for both testing and vaccine coverage. Overall, our results suggest that rates of COVID-19 vaccination and PCR testing capacity are important factors for reducing absenteeism, while the influenza vaccination rate and the transmission rates for both COVID-19 and influenza have lower and almost equal affect on absenteeism. We also use the model to estimate and quantify the (indirect) benefit that influenza immunization confers against COVID-19 transmission. •COVID-19 and influenza co-circulation is believed to increase workplace absenteeism.•We formulate a model quantifying the impact of co-circulation on absenteeism.•Appropriate PCR testing and vaccination against both diseases may reduce absenteeism.•With COVID-19 PCR testing, there may a critical threshold before diminishing returns.•COVID-19 vaccination yields sharper absentee reductions than influenza vaccination.