Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences
The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity:...
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| Published in | Accounting and finance (Parkville) Vol. 45; no. 3; pp. 375 - 394 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Boston, USA and Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing, Inc
01.11.2005
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long‐term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. |
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| AbstractList | Abstract
The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long‐term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long-term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long‐term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. |
| Author | Finn, Frank Hodgson, Allan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Frank surname: Finn fullname: Finn, Frank organization: UQ Business School, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, Australia – sequence: 2 givenname: Allan surname: Hodgson fullname: Hodgson, Allan organization: Amsterdam Graduate Business School, University of Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, the Netherlands |
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| Notes | istex:068A2D1CF278F331D5A159978241C9885293D5D7 ArticleID:ACFI125 ark:/67375/WNG-MJ86CWWT-3 Accounting and Finance, v.45, no.3, Nov 2005: (375)-394 The authors wish to thank an anonymous reviewer of this journal, Robert Faff the Editor, Marc DeCeuster, Neil Fargher, Phil Gray, Russ Lundholm, Terry O'Keffe, Terry Walter and workshop participants at the University of Oregon for their useful comments. |
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A. – ident: e_1_2_1_31_1 doi: 10.2307/2555521 – ident: e_1_2_1_17_1 doi: 10.2307/2938278 – ident: e_1_2_1_4_1 – volume-title: Mergers, Managers and the Economy year: 1968 ident: e_1_2_1_25_1 contributor: fullname: Reid S. R. – ident: e_1_2_1_30_1 doi: 10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00211-3 – ident: e_1_2_1_12_1 doi: 10.1080/135048594358249 – ident: e_1_2_1_13_1 doi: 10.2307/1913236 – ident: e_1_2_1_6_1 – volume-title: Merger Movements in American Industry year: 1959 ident: e_1_2_1_23_1 contributor: fullname: Nelson R. L. – ident: e_1_2_1_26_1 doi: 10.2307/2110012 – ident: e_1_2_1_3_1 – volume: 11 start-page: 85 year: 1984 ident: e_1_2_1_22_1 article-title: Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information investors do not have publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics contributor: fullname: Myers S. – ident: e_1_2_1_14_1 doi: 10.1111/1540-6261.00477 – ident: e_1_2_1_8_1 – volume-title: The Revolution in Corporate Finance year: 1992 ident: e_1_2_1_19_1 contributor: fullname: Lev B. – ident: e_1_2_1_20_1 doi: 10.2307/1924187 – ident: e_1_2_1_5_1 – ident: e_1_2_1_27_1 doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00117 – start-page: 25 volume-title: Mergers and Acquisitions year: 1988 ident: e_1_2_1_15_1 contributor: fullname: Golbe D. L. – ident: e_1_2_1_16_1 doi: 10.2307/1912791 – volume: 62 start-page: 540 year: 1982 ident: e_1_2_1_32_1 article-title: Money publication-title: American Economic Review contributor: fullname: Sims C. A. – ident: e_1_2_1_28_1 doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00301 |
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| Snippet | The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the... Abstract The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine... The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the... |
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| SubjectTerms | Econometrics Economic impact Economic trends Endogeneity Exogeneity G34 Impact analysis Macroeconomic factors Macroeconomics Mergers Stock prices Studies Takeover activity Tender offers Vector error correction modelling (VECM) |
| Title | Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences |
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