Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences
The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity:...
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Published in | Accounting and finance (Parkville) Vol. 45; no. 3; pp. 375 - 394 |
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Main Authors | , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Boston, USA and Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing, Inc
01.11.2005
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
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Abstract | The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long‐term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. |
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AbstractList | Abstract
The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long‐term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long-term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long‐term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity. |
Author | Finn, Frank Hodgson, Allan |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Frank surname: Finn fullname: Finn, Frank organization: UQ Business School, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, Australia – sequence: 2 givenname: Allan surname: Hodgson fullname: Hodgson, Allan organization: Amsterdam Graduate Business School, University of Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, the Netherlands |
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Cites_doi | 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x 10.1016/S0929-1199(00)00010-9 10.1016/0165-4101(93)90009-5 10.1257/jep.15.2.103 10.1080/758527818 10.2307/2555521 10.2307/2938278 10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00211-3 10.1080/135048594358249 10.2307/1913236 10.2307/2110012 10.1111/1540-6261.00477 10.2307/1924187 10.1111/0022-1082.00117 10.2307/1912791 10.1111/0022-1082.00301 |
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Notes | istex:068A2D1CF278F331D5A159978241C9885293D5D7 ArticleID:ACFI125 ark:/67375/WNG-MJ86CWWT-3 Accounting and Finance, v.45, no.3, Nov 2005: (375)-394 The authors wish to thank an anonymous reviewer of this journal, Robert Faff the Editor, Marc DeCeuster, Neil Fargher, Phil Gray, Russ Lundholm, Terry O'Keffe, Terry Walter and workshop participants at the University of Oregon for their useful comments. |
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Snippet | The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine the... Abstract The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25‐year period to re‐examine... The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the... |
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SubjectTerms | Econometrics Economic impact Economic trends Endogeneity Exogeneity G34 Impact analysis Macroeconomic factors Macroeconomics Mergers Stock prices Studies Takeover activity Tender offers Vector error correction modelling (VECM) |
Title | Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences |
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