Broadcasting Out-Group Repression to the In-Group: Evidence From China

• Published in: The Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 68; no. 6; pp. 1080 - 1108
• Main Authors: Baggott Carter, Erin, Carter, Brett L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01.07.2024; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Anniversaries; Asian cultural groups; Autocracy; Broadcasting; Censuses; Conflict resolution; Demonstrations & protests; Elites; Falsification; Group dynamics; Group identity; Massacre; Massacres; Oppression; Propaganda; Tiananmen Square Incident; Urban areas; Uyghur people; ethnic politics; rebellion; repression; propaganda; political survival; human rights
• ISSN: 0022-0027; 1552-8766
• DOI: 10.1177/00220027231185148

Many autocrats govern with an in-group, whose support must be secured, and an out-group, which is subject to repression. How do autocrats exploit in-group/out-group dynamics to secure their survival? One strategy, we argue, is to broadcast out-group repression to the in-group as a signal of the regime’s capacity for violence. Empirically, we focus on China, where the government represses ethnic Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Drawing on 1 million articles from six propaganda newspapers, we show that the regime broadcasts out-group repression to urban elites on each anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when 10% of Beijing residents joined anti-regime protests. To understand its effects, we conducted a survey experiment balanced on the national census during the June 2020 Tiananmen anniversary. Using a list experiment to mitigate preference falsification, we show that CCP propaganda about Uyghurs during the Tiananmen anniversary discourages protests among politically engaged urban elites because they fear repression.