Two-point estimate method for quantifying transfer capability uncertainty

A two-point estimate method is proposed in this paper to assess the power transfer capability uncertainty. This paper assumes that the uncertainty of the line parameters and bus injections involved in transfer capability calculations can be estimated or measured and shows how to estimate the corresp...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inIEEE transactions on power systems Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 573 - 579
Main Authors Su, C.-L., Lu, C.-N.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York IEEE 01.05.2005
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subjects
Computer simulation
Derivatives
Electricity distribution
Estimates
Load flow
Mathematical analysis
Mathematical models
Monte Carlo methods
Parameter estimation
Point estimate method
Power system analysis computing
Power system reliability
Power system security
Probability distribution
Safety
Taylor series
transfer capability
Transmission line measurements
transmission reliability margin
Uncertainty
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Summary:A two-point estimate method is proposed in this paper to assess the power transfer capability uncertainty. This paper assumes that the uncertainty of the line parameters and bus injections involved in transfer capability calculations can be estimated or measured and shows how to estimate the corresponding uncertainty in the transfer capability. Instead of using a large number of simulations as required in the Monte Carlo approach, for a system with n uncertain parameters, the two-point estimate method uses 2n calculations of transfer capability to quantify the uncertainty. The proposed method uses a numerical method to calculate the moments of the transfer capability. The moments are then used in the probability distribution fitting. Using the obtained transfer capability uncertainty information and a desired level of reliability, an adequate transmission reliability margin can be determined for each transmission service. The proposed method can be used directly with a deterministic computer program and it does not require derivatives of the transfer capability. Test results of the proposed method are compared with those obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations and a truncated Taylor series expansion method.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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content type line 23
ISSN:0885-8950
1558-0679
DOI:10.1109/TPWRS.2005.846233