Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

• Published in: IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science Vol. 113; no. 1; pp. 12007 - 12012
• Main Authors: Xie, Shan, Lan, Yifei, He, Lei, Jiao, Yang, Wu, Yong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.02.2018
• Subjects: Gas wells; Mathematical analysis; Oil and gas fields; Permeability; Prediction models; Production methods; Technical services
• ISSN: 1755-1307; 1755-1315
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/113/1/012007

ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.