Understanding contingent choice: a computer simulation approach

• Published in: IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 296 - 309
• Main Authors: Payne, J.W., Johnson, E.J., Bettman, J.R., Coupey, E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York, NY IEEE 01.03.1990; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Computer simulation; Conferences; Decision making; Decision theory. Utility theory; Exact sciences and technology; Information processing; Modeling; Monte Carlo methods; Operational research and scientific management; Operational research. Management science; Production systems; Production system; Monte Carlo method; Choice; Computer simulation; Decision making; Decision theory; Heuristic method; Strategy
• ISSN: 0018-9472; 2168-2909
• DOI: 10.1109/21.52541

It is pointed on that, when making choices, people use a variety of information processing strategies, contingent upon a number of task and context variables. An approach to investigating contingent decision behavior using an effort/accuracy framework, production system modeling of decision strategies, and Monte Carlo simulation to explore the interactions of task properties with decision heuristics (strategies) is illustrated. The simulation results suggest that the contingent use of choice heuristics may often yield relatively high levels of decision accuracy with substantial savings in effort. Also presented is a discussion of how the use of heuristics may vary during the course of the decision episode as the structure of the task is learned. In addition, ways to opportunistically exploit the task structure to simplify processing while still producing good decisions are identified.< >