Prediction markets as meta‐episteme: Artificial intelligence, forecasting tournaments, prediction markets, and economic growth

This paper presents a speculative framework suggesting that prediction markets (or its epistemic cousins such as artificial intelligence or forecasting tournaments) may constitute a break in the expansion of human knowledge in a manner similar to the impact of the Scientific and Industrial Revolutio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe American journal of economics and sociology Vol. 83; no. 2; pp. 383 - 392
Main Author Murphy, Ryan H.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2024
Subjects
Artificial intelligence
Economic growth
Forecasting
Markets
Natural environment
Predictions
Relatives
Revolutions
Scientific knowledge
Tournaments
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Summary:This paper presents a speculative framework suggesting that prediction markets (or its epistemic cousins such as artificial intelligence or forecasting tournaments) may constitute a break in the expansion of human knowledge in a manner similar to the impact of the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions. Just as the scientific understanding of the natural world facilitated the development of useful technologies to move far faster than what is allowed by blind evolution and tinkering, tools such as prediction markets allow for scientific knowledge to move faster than its current evolutionary process. The intellectual bases for these tools, such as the interpretation of probabilities as bets, are relatively recent additions to human knowledge, which may have significant implications for how we evaluate past thinkers, versus what is now possible or may be possible in the future.
ISSN:0002-9246
1536-7150
DOI:10.1111/ajes.12546