Bus Ridership Prediction and Scenario Analysis through ML and Multi-Agent Simulations

• Published in: Advances in distributed computing and artificial intelligence journal Vol. 13; p. e31866
• Main Authors: Martí, Pasqual, Ibáñez, Alejandro, Julian, Vicente, Novais, Paulo, Jordán, Jaume
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Salamanca Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca 01.01.2024
• Subjects: agent simulation; Artificial intelligence; Buses (vehicles); Decision making; Distributed processing; Machine learning; Multiagent systems; Optimization; passenger prediction; Passengers; Public transportation; Resource allocation; Ridership; Simulation; Transportation services; Transportation systems; Trends; urban mobility; Weather
• ISSN: 2255-2863; 2255-2863
• DOI: 10.14201/adcaij.31866

This paper introduces an innovative approach to predicting bus ridership andanalysing transportation scenarios through a fusion of machine learning (ML) techniques and multi-agent simulations. Utilising a comprehensive dataset from an urban bus system, we employ ML models to accurately forecast passenger flows, factoring in diverse variables such as weather conditions. The novelty of our method lies in the application of these predictions to generate detailed simulation scenarios, which are meticulously executed to evaluate the efficacy of public transportation services. Our research uniquely demonstrates the synergy between ML predictions and agent-based simulations, offering a robust tool for optimising urban mobility. The results reveal critical insights into resource allocation, service efficiency, and potential improvements in public transport systems. This study significantly advances the field by providing a practical framework for transportation providers to optimise services and address long-term challenges in urban mobility