Aggregated risk of a series of tunnels on Mumbai–Pune expressway

• Published in: International journal of system assurance engineering and management Vol. 11; no. Suppl 2; pp. 357 - 366
• Main Authors: Jena, Jajati K., Verma, Ajit K., Kumar, Uday, Ajit, Srividya
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi Springer India 01.07.2020; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Accident data; Aggregate risk; Computer simulation; Drift och underhållsteknik; Engineering; Engineering Economics; F–N curve; Gamma distribution; Logistics; Lognormal distribution; Marketing; Monte Carlo simulation; Monte-Carlo method; Mumbai–Pune expressway; Operation and Maintenance; Organization; Original Article; Quality Control; Random sampling; Reliability; Risk; Risk assessment; Safety and Risk; Simple random sampling; Tunnels; Mumbai India; India; Gamma distribution; Aggregate risk; Simple random sampling; F–N curve; Risk; Monte-Carlo method; Mumbai–Pune expressway; Lognormal distribution
• ISSN: 0975-6809; 0976-4348; 0976-4348
• DOI: 10.1007/s13198-020-00970-3

In the heavily industrialized western India, on the express way between Mumbai and Pune there is a series of five 03-lane one way tunnels. Risks in the tunnels on the hilly express way are sourced from the heavy goods vehicles often carrying dangerous goods. During the design stage, risk assessment is carried out using theoretical risk models such as OECD/PIARC DG-QRAM. However, during operational stage of a tunnel real time accident data are available to estimate the risk or fatality rate. In this paper a methodology has been developed to estimate aggregated risk of the series of 05 tunnels from the accident rate by Monte - Carlo simulation using simple random sampling technique. It has been found that major accident rate (or risk) is better represented by lognormal distribution.