Tracking multidrug resistant tuberculosis: a 30-year analysis of global, regional, and national trends

• Published in: Frontiers in public health Vol. 12; p. 1408316
• Main Authors: Song, Hui-Wen, Tian, Jian-Hua, Song, Hui-Ping, Guo, Si-Jie, Lin, Ye-Hong, Pan, Jin-Shui
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 10.09.2024
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Disability-Adjusted Life Years; Female; Global Burden of Disease; Global Health - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Incidence; Male; Middle Aged; multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; Public Health; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; socio-demographic index; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant - epidemiology; Young Adult; multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; socio-demographic index; incidence; disability-adjusted life years; global burden of disease
• ISSN: 2296-2565; 2296-2565
• DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1408316

To provide valuable insights for targeted interventions and resource allocation, our analysis delved into the multifaceted burden, trends, risks, and projections of multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). This research employed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 dataset, which used a comparative risk assessment to quantify the disease burden resulting from risk factors. Initially, this database was utilized to extract details concerning the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and the number of individuals afflicted by MDR-TB. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted using the Joinpoint program to figure average annual percent change (AAPC) to ascertain the trend. Thirdly, the age-period-cohort model (APCM) was adopted to analyze evolutions in incidence and mortality. Finally, utilizing the Nordpred model within R software, we projected the incidence and mortality of MDR-TB from 2020 to 2030. MDR-TB remained a pressing global health concern in regions with lower socio-demographic indexes (SDI), where the AAPC in DALYs topped 7% from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the cumulative DALYs attributed to MDR-TB tallied up to 4.2 million, with India, the Russian Federation, and China bearing the brunt. Notably, the incidence rates have shown a steadfast presence over the past decade, and a troubling forecast predicts an uptick in these areas from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the risk of contracting MDR-TB grew with advancing age, manifesting most acutely among men aged 40+ in lower SDI regions. Strikingly, alcohol consumption had been identified as a significant contributor, surpassing the impacts of smoking and high fasting plasma glucose, leading to 0.7 million DALYs in 2019. A robust strategy is needed to end tuberculosis (TB) by 2030, especially in lower SDI areas.