Future changes in key plant traits across Central Europe vary with biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat type

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 907; p. 167954
• Main Authors: Golivets, Marina, Knapp, Sonja, Essl, Franz, Lenzner, Bernd, Latombe, Guillaume, Leung, Brian, Kühn, Ingolf
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 10.01.2024
• Subjects: Biological invasions; Environmental filtering; Global environmental change; Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP); Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP); Trait-based approach; Trait–environment relationship; Global environmental change; Trait–environment relationship; Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP); Environmental filtering; Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP); Biological invasions; Trait-based approach
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167954

Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies and thus informing about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Yet, the evidence of trait–environment relationships (TERs) remains too heterogeneous for reliable predictions, partially due to insufficient consideration of trait syndromes specific to certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is still unclear whether non-native and native plants' traits align similarly along environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the impacts of future plant invasions. Using a Bayesian multilevel modelling framework, we assess TERs for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plants across six broad habitat types in Central Europe at a resolution of c. 130 km2 and use them to project trait change under future environmental change scenarios until 2081–2100. We model TERs between three key plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; seed mass, SM) and individual environmental factors (7 climate variables and % urban land cover) and estimate trait change summed across all environmental effects. We also quantify the change in the average trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depict multiple TERs, with important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience a future increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is estimated to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight conditions of competitive advantage of non-native plants over natives and vice versa and can serve as starting points for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services. [Display omitted] •Trait distributions along ecological gradients allow scenario projections for traits.•Biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat shape future change in plant traits.•Future native woody assemblages increase in height, specific leaf area and seed mass.•Herbaceous height increases and specific leaf area decreases in most habitats.•Greater overall magnitude of trait change in non-native than native plant assemblages.