Time-Varying Characteristic Based Load Forecasting Method for Distribution Network with DGs

• Published in: Applied Mechanics and Materials Vol. 448-453; pp. 2434 - 2438
• Main Authors: Zhang, Pan, Li, Yang, Liu, Wei, Chen, Hai, Zhao, Ming Xin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Zurich Trans Tech Publications Ltd 01.01.2014
• Subjects: Distribution management; Electric power; Forecasting; Load; Load distribution (forces); Mathematical functions; Monte Carlo simulation; Planning; Solar energy; Standard deviation; Stress concentration; Time-Varying Characteristic; Superposition Method; Load Forecasting; Monte Carlo Simulation; Distributed Generation (DG)
• ISBN: 3037859121; 9783037859124
• ISSN: 1660-9336; 1662-7482; 1662-7482
• DOI: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.448-453.2434

Middle-term and long-term load forecasting is important for planning of distribution network. With DG (distributed generation) integrated into network, the net load demand of HV/MV transformers become more complicated, load forecasting encounters greater challenge than ever. Uncertainty of wind and solar power has greatly influenced the load characteristics. A new load forecasting method for distribution network with DGs is proposed in this paper, which concerns time-varying characteristic of DG output power. Firstly, we get the conventional spatial load forecasting results. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation, we get the time-varying characteristic of DG. Lastly, superposing time-varying characteristics of conventional load and DGs, we can get the net-load forecasting result for distribution network.