Modelling the complete continuum of care using system dynamics: the case of osteoarthritis in Alberta

• Published in: Journal of simulation : JOS Vol. 9; no. 2; pp. 156 - 169
• Main Authors: Vanderby, S A, Carter, M W, Noseworthy, T, Marshall, D A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Taylor & Francis 01.05.2015; Palgrave Macmillan UK; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Arthritis; Business and Management; Chronic illnesses; Computer simulation; Demographics; Disease; Health services; health systems; Information Systems and Communication Service; Joint replacement surgery; Monte Carlo simulation; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Original Article; Osteoarthritis; Pain; Patients; Planning; Primary care; simulation; Simulation and Modeling; strategic planning; system dynamics; system dynamics; health systems; simulation; strategic planning
• ISSN: 1747-7778; 1747-7786
• DOI: 10.1057/jos.2014.43

Estimating how many patients will require care, the nature of the care they require, and when and where they will require it, is critical when planning resources for a sustainable health-care system. Resource planning must consider how quickly patients move among stages of care, the various different pathways they may take and the resources required at each stage. This research presents a preliminary long-term, population-driven system dynamics simulation developed to support resource planning and policy development relating to osteoarthritis care. The simulation models osteoarthritis patients as they transition through the continuum of care from disease onset through end-stage care, and provides insight into the size and characteristics of the patient population, their resource requirements and associated health-care costs. Although the model presented is specific to the osteoarthritis care system in the Province of Alberta, Canada, similar methods could be applied to develop simulations relating to other chronic conditions.