Using cellular automata to simulate electronic commerce receptivity in small organisations

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 74; no. 6; pp. 798 - 818
• Main Author: Zupan, Neja
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.07.2007
• Subjects: Adoption of Innovations; Cellular automata; Diffusion; Diffusion model; Electronic commerce; Forecasting; Internet; Maturity level; Opinion dynamics; Opinions; Slovenia; Small Businesses; Technology Attitudes; Trade; Maturity level; Cellular automata; Electronic commerce; Opinion dynamics; Diffusion model
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.06.003

The focus of the research is to study the dynamics of electronic commerce propagation caused by organisational characteristics in small organisations. A model of opinion dynamics and verbalisation process for studying the receptivity of electronic commerce in small organisations in Slovenia is proposed. The methodology is based on cellular automata approach, diffusion theory, small organisations characteristics and studies on factors affecting electronic commerce introduction and usage in small organisations. The decision of an organisation whether to adopt electronic commerce or not is based on its attitude towards electronic commerce and impressions gathered from interactions with other organisations. Different characteristics of organisations were defined according to the data gathered by interviews and a survey. Several types of electronic commerce diffusion dynamics are evident from the data gathered. The most likely scenario of electronic commerce diffusion among small organizations in Slovenia predicts a decrease in organizations that are less mature in e-commerce and the increase in more mature organizations by 6–8% by the end of year 2006.