Sub-segment-based approach for assessing growth and energy transition trajectories of Indian two-wheelers

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production Vol. 430; p. 139559
• Main Authors: Saurabh, Kumar, Majumdar, Rudrodip
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 10.12.2023
• Subjects: adults; batteries; carbon dioxide; Cleaner energy mix; Electric vehicle transition; electricity generation; Emission savings; imports; India; Modified Gompertz function; motorcycles; ownership; people; population density; road transportation; Two-wheeler segment; urbanization; Vehicle fleet elasticity; India; Vehicle fleet elasticity; Electric vehicle transition; Emission savings; Modified Gompertz function; Cleaner energy mix; Two-wheeler segment
• ISSN: 0959-6526; 1879-1786
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139559

The transition trajectory of India's two-wheeler (2W) vehicle segment is studied using a sequential modelling framework for projecting sub-segment-wise 2W fleet, energy demand, and associated CO2 emissions. Road density per capita was identified as a more significant explanatory variable than GDP per capita in estimating 2W fleet size in India. The elasticity method was used to evaluate the 2W vehicle saturation level based on five different indirect parameters. It was found that population density had the highest impact (48%), followed by urbanization (31%) and adult population share (16%). The impact of the total cost of ownership was negligible. The mean 2W vehicle saturation level was calculated to be 314 while the ownership was found to be 207, 265, and 297 vehicles per 1000 people by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Scooters were found to be leading the e-transition of 2Ws but a successful e-transition of India's 2Ws would not be achieved without transitioning the motorcycles. Two motorcycle clusters were identified that offer economies of scale towards e-transitioning. Closer scrutiny of six plausible e-transition scenarios showed that a 50% penetration of E−2Ws is unattainable before 2045. The biggest obstacle in achieving high E−2W penetration in India would be the limited capacity to supply indigenously produced vehicles. A high import dependence on battery technology and critical raw materials would limit the energy transition and diversification of the Indian road transport sector. India should follow the mass adoption-driven diffusion pathway in the short-to-medium term and the affordability-constraint diffusion pathway in the long term to achieve the best results in terms of reduction in energy demand and associated emissions for the 2W segment. The gains from the e-transition of the road transport sector would not be substantial without a simultaneous transition in the country's electricity generation mix away from coal-based thermal power. •Elasticity method used on indirect parameters to project vehicle saturation level.•Six bottom-up scenarios built for India's two-wheeler (2W) futuristic e-transition.•Focus on e-transition of motorcycles is crucial to electrification of 2Ws in India.•Aim at 10% on-road electric fleet by 2030 or 25% by 2040 for long-term e-adoption.•A robust domestic supply-chain is critical for 2W e-transition success in India.