population model for the black tern Chlidonias niger in West-Europe
Based on empiric data of breeding success and accurate number trends in The Netherlands, a population model for the black tern was constructed. This model is based on Leslie matrices. Reproductive parameters from the four most important landscape types (river landscape, agricultural grasslands, peat...
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Published in | Journal für Ornithologie Vol. 149; no. 4; pp. 487 - 494 |
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Main Authors | , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Berlin/Heidelberg
Berlin/Heidelberg : Springer-Verlag
2008
Springer Berlin Heidelberg Springer Nature B.V |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Based on empiric data of breeding success and accurate number trends in The Netherlands, a population model for the black tern was constructed. This model is based on Leslie matrices. Reproductive parameters from the four most important landscape types (river landscape, agricultural grasslands, peat marsh and heath land/moors) are used as model input. Highly accurate national population trend data were used to obtain the best (least square) estimate of overall adult and subadult survival (resp. 0.849 and 0.595). Estimating survival parameters in this way might be useful for threatened (bird) species, especially if catching and ringing is difficult or less desired from a conservation perspective. The model shows the actual importance of the river landscape as the main source for reproductive output of the Dutch black tern population. The prediction model was subsequently used to test different conservation strategies for the Dutch black tern population. Conservation strategies ranged from a null scenario (no change in conservation effort) to in- or decreasing the number of rafts in the most productive landscape (river landscape) to a scenario where breeding success is improved recently in agricultural grasslands via minimizing disturbance. For all scenarios, the model predicts a slow to rapid population increase in the Dutch black tern population after 10-20 years. Improving breeding success in agricultural grasslands habitat has the highest added value. |
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Bibliography: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10336-008-0292-z |
ISSN: | 0021-8375 2193-7192 1439-0361 2193-7206 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s10336-008-0292-z |