Temporal changes in racial violence, 1980 to 2006: A latent trajectory approach

• Published in: Journal of criminal justice Vol. 47; pp. 1 - 11
• Main Authors: Parker, Karen F., Stansfield, Richard, McCall, Patricia L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2016; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Approaches; Census data; Change agents; Cities; Crime; Crime control strategies; Crime drop; Crime prevention; Criminal justice; Criminal law; Criminal statistics; Ethnic groups; Homicide; Homicide trends; Latent trajectory approach; Macrostructural approach; Multiculturalism & pluralism; Murders & murder attempts; Race; Racial groups; Racial identity; Racial violence; Sales; Time series; Time series analysis; Uniforms; United States > US; Racial violence; Homicide trends; Time series analysis; Macrostructural approach; Crime control strategies; Crime drop; Latent trajectory approach
• ISSN: 0047-2352; 1873-6203
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.06.001

The study examines the ability of a latent trajectory approach to advance our understanding of the temporal trends in white and black homicide rates over a critical period, 1980 to 2006. After establishing distinct trajectories that reveal hidden racial heterogeneity, we estimate which of two dominant arguments concerning the changes in homicide rates over time: 1) macrostructural conditions and 2) crime control and drug sales—best explain the latent class race-specific homicide rate memberships at the city level. Using homicide data from the Uniform Crime Reports along with decennial U.S. census data across three time periods, we employ both latent trajectory and time series approaches. Our latent trajectory approach identified three unique trends or groupings of cities based on white and black homicide rates, reflecting “high”, “medium” and “low” temporal homicide trends. Time series models highlight variation in which characteristics contributed to the distinct race-specific homicide trends by trajectory group. Together, this study reveals hidden heterogeneity among American cities with respect to temporal trends that inform the current debate about diversity in the location and magnitude of the crime drop as well as which factors contributed to homicide trends by racial groups. Implications are discussed. •We examine white and black homicide trends (1980 to 2006) using a latent trajectory approach.•Significant variation is found in city selection and trajectory magnitude by racial group.•Macrostructural conditions are strongly associated with white homicide trends overall and by trajectory group.•Macrostructural conditions and crime control strategies are equally important in addressing black homicide trends.•Hidden heterogeneity was illustrated within American cities in terms of the location and magnitude of the crime drop along racial lines.