Extreme values of storm surge elevation in Hangzhou Bay

• Published in: Ships and offshore structures Vol. 15; no. 4; pp. 431 - 442
• Main Authors: Liu, Guilin, Gao, Zhikang, Chen, Baiyu, Fu, Hanliang, Jiang, Song, Wang, Liping, Wang, Ge, Chen, Zhengshou
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge Taylor & Francis 20.04.2020; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Distribution; Distribution functions; Extreme value theory; Extreme values; Extreme weather; Hurricanes; Measurement; Pearson-III-Pareto distribution; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; storm surge elevation; Storm surges; Storms; threshold; Tidal waves; Weibull distribution
• ISSN: 1744-5302; 1754-212X
• DOI: 10.1080/17445302.2019.1661618

This paper presents a statistical analysis of storm surge in Hangzhou Bay, where storm surge is known taking place frequently. This study utilises measurement data taken the period of 1974-2006. The Pearson-III-Pareto distribution model was used first to fit with extreme values based on these measurement data and was then compared with Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson-III, Pareto distribution functions for estimations of extreme storm surge values correspondingly to 100-, 200-, 400-, 500-, 700- and 1000-year return periods. The predicted values of storm surge elevation in the 1000-year return period of the new model are 2.179% higher than the Weibull distribution and 3.546% lower than the Pearson-III distribution. Expectedly, the proposed Pearson-III-Pareto distribution is a more reasonable for presenting the statistical characteristic of extreme values of storm surge.