Crime registration and distress calls during COVID-19: two sides of the coin

• Published in: Policing & society Vol. 32; no. 9; pp. 1124 - 1145
• Main Authors: Paramasivan, Kandaswamy, Sudarsanam, Nandan, Vellaichamy, Sivapriya, Norris, Karysa K., Subburaj, Rahul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Routledge 21.10.2022; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Bayesian inference; causal impact; Classification; coronavirus; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Crime prevention; Crime registration; Criminal statistics; distress calls; Human body; Law enforcement; Missing persons; Mobility; Mothers; Motivation; Offenses; Older people; Pandemics; Police; Property offences; Psychological distress; Registration; Shelter in place; stay-at-home orders; Structural models; Traffic; Trends; Victims; Women; Tamil Nadu India; India
• ISSN: 1043-9463; 1477-2728
• DOI: 10.1080/10439463.2021.2023526

This paper inspects changes in crime trends brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu, India. Using Bayesian structural time-series models, the authors study the changes in two metrics of criminal activity - crime registration and distress calls. In addition to absolute changes, the authors analyse the relative changes in one metric with respect to the other during two stay-at-home orders across six categories of crimes: property offences; offences against the human body; cases of missing persons and unidentified dead bodies; vehicle- and traffic-related offences; crimes against women, children and elders; and emerging crimes. While there was an overall decrease in most types of crime, results show that each category was impacted by restrictions in human mobility in different ways; emerging crimes, in particular, increased significantly during both periods. The crime and call trends exhibited a synchronous pattern with respect to a majority of offences except in the category of crimes against women and missing persons, where a contrary trend of decreasing crime registrations and increasing distress calls was noticed during the partial lockdown period. This finding highlights inherent inadequacies such as under-reporting of crimes by victims and non-registration of crime by the police. Understanding these inadequacies could potentially enhance preparedness leading to improved public service delivery by reordering priorities. Breaking down these trends at a crime-specific level assists law enforcement practitioners in gaining insights on crime motivators and enablers, thus contributing towards more effective crime prevention under ordinary circumstances.