Evaluation of climate-change impacts on the temporal and spatial behaviour of drought in South-Central Chile

• Published in: Hydrological sciences journal Vol. 69; no. 2; pp. 165 - 184
• Main Authors: Bobadilla, Andrea, Stehr, Alejandra, Toro, Nicolás
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 25.01.2024; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Climate adaptation; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Decision making; Drought; Drought index; Duration; GCM; General circulation models; Geomorphology; Hydrologic drought; RCP; River basins; Soil water; Standardized precipitation index; Stream discharge; Stream flow; SWAT model; Water circulation; Water resources
• ISSN: 0262-6667; 2150-3435
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2023.2288217

Chile is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its geomorphology, ecological wealth and economic dependence on water resources, and has been facing a severe drought since 2010. The objective of this work is to propose a methodology able to project and evaluate changes in the magnitude, duration and frequency of meteorological and hydrological droughts, as a decision-making tool to support adaptation to climate change. Four basins were assessed using different downscaled General Circulation Models (GCM) and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Results were evaluated using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) comparing drought events over two periods of time. An increase in magnitude and duration of meteorological droughts is projected, especially in the Andes Mountain range. Regarding hydrological drought, greater increases in magnitude and duration are projected for the Itata River Basin. In both types of droughts, an increase in frequency is expected.