Flexibles Inflationsziel für die Geldpolitik: nur neuer Wein in alten Schläuchen?

• Published in: Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg) Vol. 101; no. 1; pp. 58 - 62
• Main Author: Sell, Friedrich L
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: German
• Published: Heidelberg Springer 2021; Springer Berlin Heidelberg; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysen und Berichte; Central banks; Compensation; Economic Policy; Economics; Economics and Finance; European Integration; Inflation; Inflation rates; Inflation targeting; Labor Economics; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics; Monetary policy; Powell, Jerome; Social Policy; Success; Violations; E65; E58; E52
• ISSN: 1613-978X; 0043-6275; 1613-978X
• DOI: 10.1007/s10273-021-2826-4

Mit altgedienten Sprachbildern sollte man sparsam umgehen. Und doch: Die von Jerome Powell, dem Chef der Federal Reserve (Fed), unlängst vorgeschlagene zukünftige Zielzone für Inflationsraten, möglicherweise verbunden mit einer Anhebung der durchschnittlichen, von der Fed angestrebten Preissteigerungsrate, erinnert stark an ein von der Deutschen Bundesbank in den 1990er Jahren durchaus erfolgreich praktiziertes Modell. Damals stand allerdings nicht die Inflationsrate selbst, sondern die Wachstumsrate der Geldmenge im Fokus. This paper analyses the Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell's proposal possibilities and limits made during the recent meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. According to Powell, the Fed, as well as the ECB, might change its inflation target policy in the future. The idea is to construct a target zone for the inflation rate. This mechanism would allow the Fed to violate its own inflation target - possibly more than 2 % in the future - for certain periods, provided it is committed to compensate for these violations in subsequent periods. The goal, hence, would be to meet the inflation target only on average in each period. This article discusses problems of implementation, compares the plan with the monetary compensation policy of the old Deutsche Bundesbank and assesses its likely failure or success.