Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 15; no. 1; pp. 8060 - 14
• Main Authors: Ni, Haobo, Cai, Xiaoyan, Ren, Jiarong, Dai, Tingting, Zhou, Jiayi, Lin, Jiumin, Wang, Li, Wang, Lingxi, Pei, Sen, Yao, Yunchong, Xu, Ting, Xiao, Lina, Liu, Qiyong, Liu, Xiaobo, Guo, Pi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 14.09.2024; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/326/596/1413; 692/499; 692/699/255/2514; 692/700/478/174; Aedes - virology; Amplitudes; Animals; Aquatic insects; China - epidemiology; Cities; Cities - epidemiology; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue - transmission; Dengue fever; Dengue Virus; Disease transmission; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Geographical distribution; Heterogeneity; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Mosquito Vectors - virology; Mosquitoes; multidisciplinary; Parameter estimation; Regression analysis; Regression models; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Seasonal distribution; Seasonal variations; Seasons; Spatial distribution; Spatial heterogeneity; Surveillance; Temporal distribution; Vector-borne diseases; China
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52460-w

China has experienced successive waves of dengue epidemics over the past decade. Nationwide data on 95,339 dengue cases, 89 surveillance sites for mosquito density and population mobility between 337 cities during 2013-20 were extracted. Weekly dengue time series including time trends and harmonic terms were fitted using seasonal regression models, and the amplitude and peak timing of the annual and semiannual cycles were estimated. A data-driven model-inference approach was used to simulate the epidemic at city-scale and estimate time-evolving epidemiological parameters. We found that the geographical distribution of dengue cases was expanding, and the main imported areas as well as external sources of imported cases changed. Dengue cases were predominantly concentrated in southern China and it exhibited an annual peak of activity, typically peaking in September. The annual amplitude of dengue epidemic varied with latitude ( F  = 19.62, P  = 0.0001), mainly characterizing by large in southern cities and small in northern cities. The effective reproduction number R eff across cities is commonly greater than 1 in several specific months from July to November, further confirming the seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity of dengue epidemics. The results of this national study help to better informing interventions for future dengue epidemics in China. The geographical distribution of dengue in China has been expanding this century. Here, the authors report the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue in China using surveillance data from 2013–2020 and combine it with mosquito abundance and human mobility data to simulate transmission at the city scale.