The Bahamas at risk: Material stocks, sea‐level rise, and the implications for development

• Published in: Journal of industrial ecology Vol. 27; no. 4; pp. 1165 - 1183
• Main Authors: Martin del Campo, Francisco, Singh, Simron Jit, Fishman, Tomer, Thomas, Adelle, Drescher, Michael
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Haven Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01.08.2023
• Subjects: Built environment; Climate adaptation; Climate change; Developing countries; Digital mapping; Disasters; Economic resources; Exposure; Housing; industrial ecology; island sustainability; LDCs; material stock analysis; Morality; OpenStreetMap; Resilience; sea‐level rise; socio‐metabolic risks; Sustainability; Sustainable development; Transportation; Bahamas
• ISSN: 1088-1980; 1530-9290
• DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13402

Recent research suggests that over 75% of resources extracted globally now go toward creating, maintaining, or operating material stocks (MS) to provide societal services like housing, transport, education, and health. However, the integrity of current and future built environments, and the capacity of the system to continue providing services, are threatened by extreme events and sea‐level rise (SLR). This is especially significant for the most disaster‐prone countries in the world: Small Island Developing States. In the aftermath of disasters, complex rebuilding efforts require substantial material and economic resources, oftentimes incurring massive debt. Understanding the composition and dynamics of MS and environmental threats is essential for current and future sustainable development. Drawing on open‐source OpenStreetMap (OSM) data, we conducted a spatially explicit material stock analysis (MSA) for The Bahamas for 2021, where we included buildings and transport MS, and SLR exposure scenarios. Total MS was estimated at 76 million tonnes (Mt) or 191 tonnes per capita (t/cap) of which transport comprises 43%. These MS are likely to increase by 36 Mt in the future. Simulations show that under 1‐, 2‐, or 3‐m SLR scenarios, around 4, 6, and 9 Mt of current MS will be exposed, with transport MS at greatest risk, with over 80% of total exposure in each scenario. Our findings highlight the critical role that key MS play in sustainability and resilience, contributing to the emphasis on effective development planning and climate change adaptation strategies, and to the exploration of the use of OSM data for studying these objectives.