PREDICTING GROUP OUTCOMES FROM BRIEF EXPOSURES

Research on thin slice judgment, or people's ability to make accurate judgments about a target based on very brief exposure, has largely focused on the detection of individual-level traits. The present studies extend this work to group-level characteristics, such as teamwork and cohesiveness, a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inSocial cognition Vol. 32; no. 1; pp. 71 - 82
Main Authors STILLMAN, Paul E, GILOVICH, Thomas, FUJITA, Kentaro
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York, NY Guilford 01.02.2014
Guilford Press
Subjects
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition & reasoning
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Group dynamics
Individual differences
Judgments
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Social attribution, perception and cognition
Social psychology
Team work
Teams
Ultimate frisbee
Videotapes
Human
Social perception
Social group
Group cohesiveness
Prediction
Inference
Cognition
Social cognition
Judgment
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Summary:Research on thin slice judgment, or people's ability to make accurate judgments about a target based on very brief exposure, has largely focused on the detection of individual-level traits. The present studies extend this work to group-level characteristics, such as teamwork and cohesiveness, and demonstrate that these inferences can predict behavioral performance outcomes. In Study 1, judgments based on 10-s performance videos of rock bands predicted view-counts of the full performance videos posted on the Internet. In Study 2, judgments of Ultimate Frisbee teams based on 10-s warm-up videos predicted the teams' winning percentages. In Study 3, thin slice judgments based on pictures of boards of directors predicted the companies' success. The authors conclude that judgments of emergent group-level characteristics based on very brief exposures can predict important real-world outcomes. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
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ISSN:0278-016X
1943-2798
DOI:10.1521/soco.2014.32.1.71