Research into induced seismicity in the Groningen field – further studies

• Published in: Geologie en mijnbouw Vol. 96; no. 5; pp. s279 - s284
• Main Authors: Jansen, Jan-Dirk, Herber, Rien
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 01.12.2017
• Subjects: Chains; Data acquisition; Earthquakes; Fault lines; Gas production; Geological hazards; Hypotheses; Modelling; Natural gas; Original Article; Policies; Procedures; Propagation; Research centers; Risk assessment; Risk management; Seismic hazard; Seismicity; Statistical inference; Statistical methods; Statistics; Studies; Theory; Uncertainty; gas production; Groningen; induced seismicity; nonstationary statistics; mechanistic models; statistical models
• ISSN: 0016-7746; 1573-9708
• DOI: 10.1017/njg.2017.21

Further research into seismicity caused by natural gas production from the Groningen field is necessary to improve the assessment of seismic risk and develop means to control and reduce it. Research into subsurface aspects is primarily of relevance to assess the seismic hazard component in the cause-and-effect chain that governs the seismic risk. It requires a wide range of research activities that can be broadly classified as follows: • Increasing understanding of the physical mechanisms that govern production-induced seismicity, in particular source mechanisms, compaction behaviour, propagation of energy to the surface, and the effects of fluctuating production. • Reducing uncertainty by acquiring additional field data to improve statistical inference, and developing statistical methods and procedures that can cope with the non-stationary nature of the process. • Developing tools and techniques to improve risk management, and support operational control and policy measures under uncertainty. An essential requirement for further research will be the possibility of developing competing theories for many aspects of the modelling chain. This requires an overall hazard and risk assessment methodology that can accommodate multiple models, and an organisational structure that facilitates the comparison of competing approaches while safeguarding their independent development. This will have to be supported by the availability of reliable data via shared databases. Finally, the scientific community should be prepared to make a major effort to translate their research results into popular scientific versions in order to keep stakeholders abreast of progressive insight into the origin, predictability and prevention of induced seismicity.