New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction

We propose a new method of randomized forecasting (RF-method), which operates with models described by systems of linear ordinary differential equations with random parameters. The RF-method is based on entropy-robust estimation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters and mea...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inMathematics (Basel) Vol. 4; no. 1; p. 16
Main Authors Popkov, Yuri, Dubnov, Yuri, Popkov, Alexey
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published MDPI AG 01.03.2016
Subjects
entropy
randomized forecasting
randomized model
the exponential World population model
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ISSN2227-7390
2227-7390
DOI10.3390/math4010016

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Summary:We propose a new method of randomized forecasting (RF-method), which operates with models described by systems of linear ordinary differential equations with random parameters. The RF-method is based on entropy-robust estimation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters and measurement noises. The entropy-optimal estimator uses a limited amount of data. The method of randomized forecasting is applied to World population prediction. Ensembles of entropy-optimal prognostic trajectories of World population and their probability characteristics are generated. We show potential preferences of the proposed method in comparison with existing methods.
ISSN:2227-7390
2227-7390
DOI:10.3390/math4010016