Detection of Novel Influenza Viruses Through Community and Healthcare Testing: Implications for Surveillance Efforts in the United States
ABSTRACT Background Novel influenza viruses pose a potential pandemic risk, and rapid detection of infections in humans is critical to characterizing the virus and facilitating the implementation of public health response measures. Methods We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the likelihood...
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Published in | Influenza and other respiratory viruses Vol. 18; no. 5; pp. e13315 - n/a |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
England
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
01.05.2024
John Wiley and Sons Inc |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | ABSTRACT
Background
Novel influenza viruses pose a potential pandemic risk, and rapid detection of infections in humans is critical to characterizing the virus and facilitating the implementation of public health response measures.
Methods
We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the likelihood that novel influenza virus cases would be detected through testing in different community and healthcare settings (urgent care, emergency department, hospital, and intensive care unit [ICU]) while at low frequencies in the United States. Parameters were informed by data on seasonal influenza virus activity and existing testing practices.
Results
In a baseline scenario reflecting the presence of 100 novel virus infections with similar severity to seasonal influenza viruses, the median probability of detecting at least one infection per month was highest in urgent care settings (72%) and when community testing was conducted at random among the general population (77%). However, urgent care testing was over 15 times more efficient (estimated as the number of cases detected per 100,000 tests) due to the larger number of tests required for community testing. In scenarios that assumed increased clinical severity of novel virus infection, median detection probabilities increased across all healthcare settings, particularly in hospitals and ICUs (up to 100%) where testing also became more efficient.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that novel influenza virus circulation is likely to be detected through existing healthcare surveillance, with the most efficient testing setting impacted by the disease severity profile. These analyses can help inform future testing strategies to maximize the likelihood of novel influenza detection. |
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Bibliography: | The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 1750-2640 1750-2659 |
DOI: | 10.1111/irv.13315 |