Dueling incumbent primaries in U.S. House elections
Objective Reapportionment and the attendant process of redistricting cause instances where incumbents are faced with the decision to retire or run against a congressional colleague. We investigate two major questions surrounding the previously understudied population of dueling incumbent primaries:...
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Published in | Social science quarterly Vol. 104; no. 2; pp. 125 - 139 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Oxford
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.03.2023
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Objective
Reapportionment and the attendant process of redistricting cause instances where incumbents are faced with the decision to retire or run against a congressional colleague. We investigate two major questions surrounding the previously understudied population of dueling incumbent primaries: First, under what conditions is a dueling incumbent primary likely to manifest? Second, how are dueling incumbent primaries different from the typical primary featuring a single incumbent?
Methods
We address these questions using a novel dataset aggregating descriptive congressional district information on these contests from 1962 to 2016, and separately for 2022.
Results
Our findings show these contests primarily emerge via electoral retrenchment, meaning a state loses representation in reapportionment. Dueling incumbent primaries also arise from the strategic calculations of partisan line drawers.
Conclusions
Not only do dueling incumbent primaries comprise a disproportionate share of incumbent defeats, but compared to single incumbent contests, primary duels feature very high redrawn constituencies, voters new to these incumbents, and this reality contributes to the high‐risk/reward nature of these rare but electorally consequential contests. |
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ISSN: | 0038-4941 1540-6237 |
DOI: | 10.1111/ssqu.13253 |