A Method for Evaluating Systematic Risk in Dams with Random Field Theory

• Published in: Applied sciences Vol. 14; no. 11; p. 4349
• Main Authors: Ran, Congyong, Zhou, Zhengjun, Pei, Liang, Lu, Xiang, Gong, Binfeng, He, Kun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.06.2024
• Subjects: China; complex foundation; Concrete; Dams; Decomposition; Gravity; gravity dam; Methods; Monte Carlo method; Monte Carlo simulation; Normal distribution; Random variables; Risk assessment; safety risk analysis; spatial variability; system reliability; China
• ISSN: 2076-3417; 2076-3417
• DOI: 10.3390/app14114349

The parameters of gravity dams and foundation materials objectively exhibit spatial variability due to environmental and load influences, which significantly affect the safety status of dam structures. Therefore, a safety risk analysis method for a gravity dam–foundation system based on random field theory is proposed in this paper. Spatial variabilities in materials are particularly considered by using the finite element method. Then, composite response surface equations for the performance function (PF) of strength and stability failure are established, and then, the system failure risk is obtained using the Monte Carlo method. The proposed method solves the problem wherein the effect of spatial variability on failure risk cannot be reflected accurately by the performance function of multi-element sliding paths, and the difficulties in solving the failure risk of the series–parallel system due to multiple failure paths and their complex correlations. The application of a gravity dam shows that the developed method overcomes the disadvantages of the traditional method, such as the homogenization of the spatially random characteristics of parameters and the overestimation of failure risk in the system due to large variance estimation.