Real-time solar wind forecasting: Capabilities and challenges

• Published in: Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics Vol. 69; no. 1; pp. 109 - 115
• Main Authors: Fry, C.D., Detman, T.R., Dryer, M., Smith, Z., Sun, W., Deehr, C.S., Akasofu, S.-I., Wu, C.-C., McKenna-Lawlor, S.
• Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2007; Elsevier
• Subjects: Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Forecasting; Interplanetary shock; Physics of the high neutral atmosphere; Physics of the ionosphere; Physics of the magnetosphere; Solar wind; Space weather; Space weather; Interplanetary shock; Solar wind; Forecasting; Interplanetary magnetic field; Uncertainty; Weather forecast; solar system; kinematics; Forecast model; Modeling; Real time system; Interplanetary shock wave; solar wind; Heliosphere; Mars; Physical parameter; three-dimensional models; Geomagnetic activity
• ISSN: 1364-6826; 1879-1824
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2006.07.024

A user-friendly, real-time, observation-driven system for forecasting solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions is described. The forecast system presently uses the Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry (version 2) kinematic solar wind model to predict, in real-time, solar wind conditions in the heliosphere, including at the location of Mars, and beyond. Properly characterizing and predicting this region of the space environment are essential steps towards improving the accuracy of “downstream” space weather models used to forecast the space radiation environment and geomagnetic activity. Representative modeling results are presented and the conclusion is made that uncertainty in determining the physical parameters needed for model inputs from real-time solar observations is the biggest factor limiting the accuracy of solar wind models used for space weather analysis and prediction. Future directions include extending the forecast system via a hybrid approach to include 3D MHD modeling.