An extended SEIARD model for COVID-19 vaccination in Mexico: analysis and forecast

In this study, we propose and analyse an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_c$ of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when $\mathcal{R}_c<1$ a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inMathematics in applied sciences and engineering Vol. 2; no. 4; pp. 273 - 289
Main Authors Pérez, Ángel G. C., Oluyori, David A.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Western Libraries 29.12.2021
Subjects
asymptomatic infection
coronavirus
stability
vaccine efficacy
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Summary:In this study, we propose and analyse an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_c$ of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when $\mathcal{R}_c<1$ and unstable when $\mathcal{R}_c>1$, and we provide a sufficient condition for its global stability. Furthermore, we perform numerical simulations using the reported data of COVID-19 infections and vaccination in Mexico to study the impact of different vaccination, transmission and efficacy rates on the dynamics of the disease.
ISSN:2563-1926
2563-1926
DOI:10.5206/mase/14233