A Study on the Population Structure and Aging of Reunified Korea

• Published in: Journal of Asian sociology Vol. 44; no. 3; pp. 411 - 433
• Main Authors: Park, Yousung, Jeon, Saebom
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Seoul 서울대학교 사회발전연구소 01.12.2015; Institute for Social Development and Policy Research, Seoul National University; 사회발전연구소
• Subjects: Age; Aging; Costs; Demographic change; Dependence; Economic models; Economic problems; Economics; Famine; Fertility; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Health insurance; Indexes; Labor supply; Life expectancy; Manpower; Maternity & paternity leaves; Migration; Mortality; Mortality rates; Older people; Population; Population aging; Population decline; Population structure; Population studies; Research methodology; Society; Socioeconomics; Sociology; Studies; Trends; Vital statistics; 사회학; South Korea; East Germany; Germany; North Korea; aging index; LC model; population projection; scenario; population pyramid
• ISSN: 2671-4574; 2671-8200
• DOI: 10.21588/dns.2015.44.3.003

The Republic of Korea is undergoing both unprecedented, rapid population aging and lowest-low fertility problems. These population trends eventually cause a population decline, manpower decrease, and other related socio-economic problems. Recently, reunification of the two Koreas has been discussed as a possible breakthrough to overcome population problems. This paper first conducts a population projection of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and then predicts the future population of a reunified Korea under possible scenarios of fertility and mortality. We further examine the population structure of reunified Korea using age-specific populations, aging indices and dependency ratios to investigate population aging and the socio-economic sustainability of the reunified Korea. Based on the projection results, reunification cannot drastically change the aging trend of the Republic of Korea, but can delay the decrease of the working- age population.