National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018-27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth

National health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for 2018-27 and represent 19.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2027. Following a ten-year period largely influenced by the Great Recession and major health reform, national health spending growth during...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inHealth Affairs Vol. 38; no. 3; pp. 491 - 501
Main Authors Sisko, Andrea M, Keehan, Sean P, Poisal, John A, Cuckler, Gigi A, Smith, Sheila D, Madison, Andrew J, Rennie, Kathryn E, Hardesty, James C
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States The People to People Health Foundation, Inc., Project HOPE 01.03.2019
Subjects
Averages
Demographics
Demography
Economic factors
Economics
Enrollments
Expenditures
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Health care
Health care expenditures
Health care industry
Health care policy
Health insurance
Health services
Insurance coverage
Medicaid
Medicare
Personal health
Population growth
Prices
Projections
Reforms
United States > US
national health expenditures
health care financing
health economics
health spending
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Summary:National health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for 2018-27 and represent 19.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2027. Following a ten-year period largely influenced by the Great Recession and major health reform, national health spending growth during 2018-27 is expected to be driven primarily by long-observed demographic and economic factors fundamental to the health sector. Prices for health care goods and services are projected to grow 2.5 percent per year, on average, for 2018-27-faster than the average price growth experienced over the last decade-and to account for nearly half of projected personal health care spending growth. Among the major payers, average annual spending growth in Medicare (7.4 percent) is expected to exceed that in Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent) over the projection period, mostly as a result of comparatively higher projected enrollment growth. The insured share of the population is expected to remain stable at around 90 percent throughout the period, as net gains in health coverage from all sources are projected to keep pace with population growth.
ISSN:0278-2715
1544-5208
DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05499