Process simulation and techno-economic assessment of vinasse-to-biogas in Cuba: Deterministic and uncertainty analysis

• Published in: Chemical engineering research & design Vol. 169; pp. 33 - 45
• Main Authors: Alfonso-Cardero, Arael, Pagés-Díaz, Jhosané, Contino, Francesco, Rajendran, Karthik, Lorenzo-LLanes, Junior
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Rugby Elsevier Ltd 01.05.2021; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Anaerobic digestion; Aspen plus; Biogas; Biomethane; Economic analysis; Economic models; Electricity; Electricity pricing; Ethanol; Failure analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation; Sugarcane; Techno-economic analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Vinasse; Cuba; Techno-economic analysis; Biogas; Aspen plus; Biomethane; Electricity; Vinasse
• ISSN: 0263-8762; 1744-3563
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cherd.2021.02.031

[Display omitted] •Process simulation and a techno-economic analysis for the AD of vinasses was assessed.•Deterministic and stochastic modelling were used to assess the economic performance.•Power generation showed the best economic performance in the Cuban scenarios.•High incentive values are required to get profit in biomethane alternatives.•Minimum milling capacities of 10,800 tcane/d are required for biomethane projects. This paper presents a process simulation model in Aspen Plus® and a techno-economic assessment for the anaerobic digestion of Cuban sugarcane vinasses considering three scenarios for biogas application: electricity production (S_1), biomethane as vehicle fuel (S_2), and biomethane for gas grid injection (S_3). From the simulation model, non-significant differences (p_value ≥ 0.1779) between experimental and simulation results were found. S_1 showed the best economic performance among the assessed biogas applications. From the sensitivity analysis, the mean electricity price leading to a net present value of zero for S_1 was 90 USD/MWh, while for S_2 and S_3 the mean incentive required was 0.33 USD/m3biomethane and 0.67 USD/m3biomethane, respectively. The uncertainty analysis showed a chance for investment failure in S_1 less than 10%, whereas for S_2 and S_3 it ranged between 31–37%. The minimum scale required (milling and distillery capacities, ethanol yield) for getting profits from biomethane projects was targeted at 10,800 tcane/day, 108 m3ethanol/d at 10 Lethanol/tcane, respectively. To this end, Cuban plants should significantly increase their average capacities; otherwise, a centralized biomethane production by limiting the number of biomethane plants to one or two per province could be implemented.