The Triumph of Polarized Partisanship in 2016: Donald Trump's Improbable Victory

Republican Donald Trump's defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election surprised a large majority of Americans of all political persuasions. The same was true of most professional observers of national politics—politicians, political scientists, reporters, and commentato...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPolitical science quarterly Vol. 132; no. 1; pp. 9 - 41
Main Author JACOBSON, GARY C.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Academy of Political Science 01.03.2017
Oxford University Press
Subjects
Candidates
Clinton, Hillary Rodham
Election results
Partisanship
Political campaigns
Political science
Presidential candidates
Presidential elections
Trump, Donald J
Voter behavior
United States > US
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Summary:Republican Donald Trump's defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election surprised a large majority of Americans of all political persuasions. The same was true of most professional observers of national politics—politicians, political scientists, reporters, and commentators. In part, they were led astray by the consensus of polls, which had Clinton leading by an average margin somewhere between 2.3 and 3.6 percentage points over the last few days of the campaign. This was not far from her actual margin, 2.1 percentage points, as she won the popular tally by more than 2.86 million votes.
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ISSN:0032-3195
1538-165X
DOI:10.1002/polq.12572