Ties

We tackle the question of the role of pivotality in voter turnout decisions by testing for the first time whether the occurrence of a tied election generates information spillovers onto nearby localities’ subsequent elections. First, we develop a model where voters update their beliefs regarding the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inSocial choice and welfare Vol. 62; no. 1; pp. 1 - 35
Main Authors Revelli, Federico, Tsai, Tsung-Sheng, Wu, Cheng-Tai
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.02.2024
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Decision making
Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods
Economics
Economics and Finance
Elections
Game Theory
International Political Economy
Original Paper
Public Finance
Quasi-experimental methods
Social and Behav. Sciences
Social Policy
Voter behavior
Voter turnout
Voters
Voting
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Summary:We tackle the question of the role of pivotality in voter turnout decisions by testing for the first time whether the occurrence of a tied election generates information spillovers onto nearby localities’ subsequent elections. First, we develop a model where voters update their beliefs regarding the probability of their vote being decisive upon observing earlier elections’ outcomes. Next, by exploiting Italian mayoral elections ending in close outcomes during the past two decades and the quasi-experimental conditions created by the staggered electoral calendar, we find a substantial impact on voter turnout rates of exposure to spillovers from tied elections.
ISSN:0176-1714
1432-217X
DOI:10.1007/s00355-023-01476-0