Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

• Published in: Environmental research letters Vol. 19; no. 7; pp. 74019 - 74030
• Main Authors: Liu, Jinliang, Hetland, Robert, Yang, Zhaoqing, Wang, Taiping, Sun, Ning
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.07.2024
• Subjects: adjustment timescale; Aquaculture; Climate change; Delaware Bay Estuary; Drought; Ecological function; Estuaries; Estuarine ecosystems; FVCOM; High flow; Intrusion; Ocean models; Salinity; Salinity effects; salt intrusion; Salts; Sea level; Sea level rise; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Time; Unstructured grids (mathematics); Upstream; Water quality
• ISSN: 1748-9326; 1748-9326
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4fa1

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.